USGS Volcano Notice - DOI-USGS-HVO-2023-11-07T10:27:53-08:00

Activity Summary: Kīlauea volcano is not erupting. The unrest at Kīlauea's summit has diminished over the past week, with a decrease in seismicity, in association with an intrusive event that began in early October. Unrest may continue to wax and wane with changes to the input of magma into the area. The current rate of uplift at the summit of Kīlauea has also lessened significantly over the last week; however, eruptive activity is still possible in the coming weeks or months. No unusual activity has been noted along Kīlauea’s East Rift Zone or the Southwest Rift Zone.

Summit Observations: Unrest around the summit area of Kīlauea diminished over the past week with a decrease in the level of overall seismicity. Waxing and waning of unrest may continue.  

Elevated seismicity associated with an intrusion beneath the south-southwest region of Kīlauea’s summit began in early October with the greatest number of earthquakes occurring on October 4-6, 16-18, 21-23, and 26-30. Over the past 24 hours, seismic activity remained nearly the same, with approximately 3 earthquakes recorded in Kīlauea’s summit region, a slight decrease from approximately 4 over the previous 24 hours. Most of the earthquakes related to this unrest have been smaller than magnitude-2 and have occurred at depths of around 1–3 km (0.6–2 mi) below the surface.

The Uēkahuna summit tiltmeter, located northwest of the caldera, measured slight, gradual uplift over the last 24 hours. The Sand Hill tiltmeter, located southwest of the caldera, also measured slight uplift over the last 24 hours. Overall, the current rate of uplift (as measured by GPS and tiltmeters) at the summit of Kīlauea has diminished significantly over the last week.

Sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emission rates remain low and were measured at a rate of about 100 tonnes per day on October 19, 2023.

It is unclear if unrest in Kīlauea's summit region will continue, and it is not possible to say with certainty if activity will lead to an eruption; activity may remain below the ground surface. However, an eruption remains possible, most likely in Kīlauea’s summit region inside of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park and away from infrastructure. Similar patterns of earthquake activity and ground deformation occurred to the south of the caldera prior to the September and June 2023 eruptions in Kīlauea summit caldera (in Halemaʻumaʻu crater and on the downdropped block). Volcanic gas emissions pose the greatest hazard to areas downwind of Kīlauea’s summit.

There is currently no sign of an imminent eruption and increasing inflation and earthquake activity (heightened unrest) are expected to precede an eruption. During periods of heightened unrest prior to recent eruptions at Kīlauea summit, signs of imminent eruption did not appear until 1-2 hours before lava reached the surface. The summit of Kīlauea remains at a high level of inflation and eruptive activity is possible in the coming weeks or months. HVO scientists will continue to monitor Kīlauea volcano closely and will issue additional messages as warranted by changing activity.

The HVO information statement released on October 23, 2023, provides addtional information and context related to recent unrest at Kīlauea summit: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hans2/view/notice/DOI-USGS-HVO-2023-10-23T22:33:18-07:00)

Rift Zone Observations: No unusual activity has been noted along the East Rift Zone or Southwest Rift Zone; steady rates of ground deformation and seismicity continue along both. Measurements from continuous gas monitoring stations downwind of Puʻuʻōʻō in the middle East Rift Zone have been below detection limits for SO₂, indicating that SO₂ emissions from Puʻuʻōʻō are negligible. 

Hazard Analysis: Levels of volcanic gas (sulfur dioxide and carbon dioxide) can remain locally hazardous even though Kīlauea is no longer erupting. Sulfur dioxide (SO₂) gas emissions have greatly decreased; however, local concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) or hydrogen sulfide (H₂S) may persist in downwind areas, and residents may notice odors of these gases occasionally. Significant hazards also remain around Halemaʻumaʻu from crater wall instability, ground cracking, and rockfalls that can be enhanced by earthquakes within the area closed to the public. For discussion of Kīlauea hazards, please see: https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hawaiian-volcano-observatory/hazards.

The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) continues to closely monitor Kīlauea volcano.

Next Notice: HVO will issue daily Kīlauea updates. Additional messages will be issued as needed.