In the next few months, we will be making significant improvements to several existing volcano-monitoring networks and adding new ones in order to enhance our real-time monitoring and eruption-warning capability in the United States. The improvements are made possible through additional Congressional support this year to the USGS Volcano Hazards Program as a way to lessen the increasing volcanic risk to U.S. enterprise. Rapidly growing population in the western United States and expanding commercial air traffic between Asia and the United States are placing more people and property in areas that can be affected by future volcanic activity. The improved monitoring networks at several key locations in California, Washington, Wyoming, Hawaii, and Alaska are intended to help scientists issue better eruption warnings to emergency officials and the public.
Recurring earthquake swarms, increased rates of ground uplift, and gas emissions have occurred in Long Valley caldera since 1978. These phenomena are strong evidence of a very active magmatic system beneath the caldera; scientists have concluded that a few recent episodes of intense unrest were caused by the rise of magma toward the surface.
We will be enhancing the way ground-deformation is monitored at Long Valley by adding several continuously-operating GPS receivers and borehole dilatometers within the caldera. In addition, we will enhance the real-time monitoring of hydrologic changes in water wells and acquire new portable equipment for measuring volcanic-gas emissions. These new instruments will (1) give us a much better and broader view of changes that occurr in the area as a consequence of moving magma and faulting; and (2) give us a more complete and robust real-time data stream on which to base interpretations of future unrest and assessments of volcanic hazards (see the USGS Long Valley "color-coded" volcano status).
A second focus for volcano-monitoring improvements is Mount Rainier because many communities downstream from the ice-covered volcano are at risk from future lahars (volcanic mudflows). Based on the geologic record, moderate-sized lahars caused by eruptions have average recurrence intervals of between 100 and 500 years; large lahars caused by massive landslides have recurrence intervals of between 500 and 1,000 years. Though the volcano remains quiet, lahars are certain in the future and they will severely affect communities in river valleys downstream from the volcano.
In response to interest expressed by emergency-management officials in Washington State, we've explored the design of a potentially automatic system for detecting lahars and issuing an emergency-lahar notification for events at Mount Rainier. Additional work is needed to resolve several issues before such a system can be implemented, including technical feasibility, implementation, and the collaboration that will be needed from the communities at risk should local jurisdictions choose to adopt such a system. The idea of a 2-year pilot project is being pursued by various agencies, and the Volcano Hazards Program is proceeding with (1) assembly of ground sensors used in the USGS lahar-detection system; and (2) development of computer software needed for the notification component of the pilot project. In addition, with funding from the USGS, scientists of the University of Washington Geophysics Department are improving their ability to detect seismic signals that may accompany future lahars.
Scientists of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) will continue to improve and expand the volcano-monitoring networks at Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes this year. At Kilauea, the new Congressional funding is being used to install several instruments (seismometer, tiltmeter, and dilatometer) within a deep drill hole located in the southwestern part of the summit caldera. The data from these underground instruments will enhance HVO's real-time deformation monitoring capability. HVO's experience with these instruments will serve as a primer on how to carry out a more complex deformation monitoring project planned for nearby Mauna Loa in the next two years.
Furthermore, scientists will continue making significant improvements to the seismic network on the Island of Hawaii. In addition to the recently installed broadband, digitally telemetered seismic network at the summit of Kilauea, a new seismic-data acquistion system is being installed at the Observatory, and many of the old seismic stations are being upgraded with new seismometers, electronics, and telemetry systems.
Improvements to the seismic- and deformation-monitoring effort at Yellowstone caldera will also take place in the coming months. With USGS support, scientists of the University of Utah plans to install a broadband seismometer and an additional GPS receiver within Yellowstone National Park.
In the past few years, scientists of the Alaska Volcano Observatory have significantly increased the number of volcanoes that they monitor. AVO now has 88 seismic stations in 11 networks, covering 16 of the 42 historically active volcanoes in Alaska. This summer, scientists will service many of these seismic networks, install a new network on Westdahl Volcano on Unimak Island, and place an additional six seismometers north of the present Mount Katmai network, which will improve the monitoring of Mount Griggs and other volcanoes to the north of Katmai.
The expanded seismic monitoring of Alaska's volcanoes and AVO's recently improved remote-sensing capability have increased the ability of scientists to respond quickly and effectively to eruptions of remote volcanoes that pose a threat to aircraft and remote habitations.
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